Richard Scrope has more than 12 years of industry experience and currently runs the VT Tyndall Global Select fund, having brought the FP CRUX Global fund to Tyndall Investment Management in August 2018. Prior to Tyndall, Richard managed the CFIC CRUX Global and European funds. He joined CRUX at the start of 2017, bringing both funds with him from Oriel Asset Management. Prior to entering the City, he served as a British Army officer and then worked at JP Morgan Chase Private Bank. He holds a Bsc in mathematics from the University of Edinburgh and is a Chartered Financial Analyst.
Queen Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom famously worked with 15 Prime Ministers during her reign, but the doors of number 10 Downing Street have been more revolving in nature in the last decade.
There once was a time when Italian Prime Minsters were expected to have a very short tenure, and France and Germany’s ministers were seen to be more secure. However with the rise of the far-right parties and an increasing trend of calling votes of no confidence to try and get legislation passed, the status quo has been turned on its head.
Is France about to shoot itself in the foot again?
Over the weekend François Bayrou called for a new vote of confidence on 8 September as he seeks to pass his plans for deep cuts in the budget. Unfortunately for him, so far the National Rally on the right and the Socialists, Greens, and France Unbowed on the left, have gathered together and announced that they would not support him in the vote. Passing spending cut measures have forever been a problem in France and many Prime Minister and Presidents have fallen in trying much more conservative cuts than what Monsieur Bayrou is proposing. Amazingly, France is a nation that last managed to balance its budget in 1974.
President Macron called a snap election in 2024 after the National Rally won 30 of the 81 French seats in the European Parliament, and his Ensemble pour la République managed only 23. Since then, France’s National Assembly has been more divided than ever. No party managed a majority in the General Election with the New Popular Front, Ensemble and the National Rally Alliance all having over 140 of the 577 seats, leaving any Prime Minster, like Monsieur Bayrou is currently discovering, trying to please both the left and the right. Like his predecessors, he now also is at risk of having to fall on his sword. French equity markets fared badly in the aftermath of the snap election, and the initial reaction to the latest announcement has been equally poorly received and sits below the level it was before the President called the 2024 election.
Job opening for a Prime Minister?
In recent years it has not just been France that has faced political turmoil and deadlock. In Germany, in the latest poll, the Alternative fűr Deutschland are tied with the Christian Democrat/Christian Socialist alliance, and in the latest UK YouGov poll, Reform UK leads the Labour party by seven percent. It appears that instability is here to stay which is not a positive backdrop for equity markets.
In contrast, Italy has seen (only) four Prime Ministers during this period and Spain only two. In the United States, Barack Obama stood down in 2017 and only Donald Trump and Joe Biden have resided in the White House since then. Even Japan has manged to see only four Prime ministers in the past 10 years, having seen off seven in the preceding 10. Perhaps it is only China, India and Russia where once you get to the top, you can call the decorators in and hide the keys.
Although the electoral cycle is a source of stability for the German and British incumbents, they both, however, face difficult decisions about balancing spending and taxation. The latter of which is never popular with their electorates, and concerns about what surprises Rachel Reeves will pull out of her hat in the Autumn budget are likely to keep a lid on significant advances in equity markets in the short-term.
WARNING: All information about the VT Tyndall Global Select Fund(‘The Fund’) is available in The Fund’s prospectus and Key Investor Information Document which are available free of charge (in English) from Valu-Trac Investment Management Limited (www.valu-trac.com). Any investment in the fund should be made on the basis of the terms governing the fund and not
WARNING: All information about the VT Tyndall Global Select Fund(‘The Fund’) is available in The Fund’s prospectus and Key Investor Information Document which are available free of charge (in English) from Valu-Trac Investment Management Limited (www.valu-trac.com). Any investment in the fund should be made on the basis of the terms governing the fund and not on the basis of any information provided herein.
The information in this Report is presented using all reasonable skill, care and diligence and has been obtained from or is based on third party sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy, completeness or timeliness, nor is it a colete statement or summary of any securities, markets or developments referred to. The information within this Report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement.
The information in this Report has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient and is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. In the absence of detailed information about you, your circumstances or your investment portfolio, the information does not in any way constitute investment advice. If you have any doubt about any of the information presented, please consult your stockbroker, accountant, bank manager or other independent financial advisor.
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Investment Manager: 5-8 The Sanctuary, London, SW1P 3JP
Tyndall Investment Management is a trading name of Odd Asset Management. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (UK), registration number 660915. This status can be checked with the FCA on 0845 730 0104 or on the FCA website (UK). All rights reserved. No part of this Report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the written permission of Tyndall Investment Management.
Investment Manager: 5-8 The Sanctuary, London, SW1P 3JP
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